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Pathogens released by thawing permafrost

Thought experiment: physically conceivable, but the evidence is weak or disputed. It is here for curiosity and to say what the science actually thinks.

Frozen soil preserves microbes. As permafrost thaws, some old microbes can wake up. This has been shown for viruses that infect amoebae, and an anthrax outbreak in Siberia in 2016 was linked to a thawed carcass. A new human pandemic from permafrost is a thought experiment with no documented example.

The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.

How it could unfold

1. 1Permafrost thaws and releases old organic material and microbes● strong evidence
2. 2Some ancient microbes remain viable (shown for amoeba viruses and anthrax spores)◐ moderate evidence
3. 3A pathogen that infects humans emerges and spreads○ speculative

Historical anchors

• Yamal peninsula anthrax outbreak, 2016.
• Revived 30,000-year-old and 48,500-year-old amoeba viruses, which do not infect humans.

What you can do

• Nothing specific; the general pandemic preparation applies.

Open the preparedness checklist for this scenario →

Related scenarios

• Pandemic X (natural)
• Climate tipping cascade

References

1. Timofeev, V. et al. (2019). Insights from Bacillus anthracis strains isolated from permafrost in the tundra zone of Russia. PLOS ONE 14:e0209140. link ↗
2. Legendre, M. et al. (2014). Thirty-thousand-year-old distant relative of giant icosahedral DNA viruses with a pandoravirus morphology. PNAS 111:4274-4279. link ↗
3. Alempic, J.-M. et al. (2023). An update on eukaryotic viruses revived from ancient permafrost. Viruses 15:564. link ↗