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Pandemic X (natural)
A new respiratory pathogen that spreads before it is noticed. COVID-19 showed how quickly air travel carries a virus around the world and how much damage a pandemic does without being an extinction threat. The explorer on this page uses a published method to show the order in which cities might be reached.
The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.
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- 1Spillover from animals, or a mutation, into a pathogen that transmits between people● strong evidence
- 2Local outbreak goes unnoticed for weeks, then seeds new cities by air travel● strong evidence
- 3Health systems overwhelmed, supply chains disrupted● strong evidence
- 4Economic and political stress lasting years◐ moderate evidence
- COVID-19: WHO estimates 14.9 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021.
- 1918 influenza: about 50 million deaths, with a published range of 17 to 100 million.
| Source | Statement | Kind |
|---|
| Toby Ord ↗ | 1 in 10,000 chance, per century, of an existential catastrophe from a naturally arising pandemic (his own estimate). COVID-19 was catastrophic but not an existential event. | EXPERT ESTIMATE |
|---|
Expert estimates are personal judgements, not measurements, and experts disagree. This site never adds its own probabilities.
Caveat
The spread model uses a crude flux proxy (airline routes, mostly 2017) and a single growth rate. Treat the order of arrival as informative and the absolute days as rough.
- Keep a few weeks of regular medicines, shelf-stable food and respirator masks.
- Follow national public-health guidance early; most of the protection comes from early, simple measures.
Open the preparedness checklist for this scenario →
- Brockmann, D. & Helbing, D. (2013). The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science 342:1337-1342. link ↗
- WHO (2022). 14.9 million excess deaths were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. link ↗
- Johnson, N.P.A.S. & Mueller, J. (2002). Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 'Spanish' influenza pandemic. Bull. Hist. Med. 76:105-115. link ↗
- Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Table 6.1. Hachette. link ↗