B · PlausibleHealth

Engineered pandemic

Advances in biotechnology make it cheaper to work with pathogens, which raises the worry that a deliberate or accidental release could be worse than a natural pandemic. This page deliberately gives no technical detail. It exists because expert estimates for this risk are among the highest in the existential-risk literature.

The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.

How it could unfold

1Biotechnology capabilities spread and costs fall◐ moderate evidence
2A release of an enhanced or engineered pathogen, deliberate or accidental○ speculative
3Spread as in any pandemic, with fewer natural limits on severity○ speculative

Historical anchors

No engineered pandemic has occurred. Historical state bioweapons programmes existed, and laboratory accidents have happened.

What experts and models say

Source	Statement	Kind
Toby Ord ↗	1 in 30 chance, per century, of an existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics (his own estimate; widely discussed and debated)	EXPERT ESTIMATE

Expert estimates are personal judgements, not measurements, and experts disagree. This site never adds its own probabilities.

Caveat

These are subjective expert estimates with very wide uncertainty; other experts rate the risk much lower.

What you can do

Public-health preparedness and surveillance are the shared defence. Personally: the same household preparation as for any pandemic.

Open the preparedness checklist for this scenario →

Related scenarios

Pandemic X (natural)

References

Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Table 6.1. Hachette. link ↗