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A · DocumentedFood & water
Mega-drought and breadbasket failure
A large share of the world's grain comes from a handful of regions and a few shipping chokepoints. A simultaneous drought or heat wave in several of them, or a blockade, can push food prices up sharply. Price spikes, more than absolute shortages, have preceded unrest and hunger.
The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.
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- 1Extreme weather or a blockade hits several major grain regions or chokepoints at once◐ moderate evidence
- 2Export bans and price spikes (Russia banned wheat exports after its 2010 heat wave)● strong evidence
- 3Hunger rises in import-dependent countries, and unrest follows in some cases◐ moderate evidence
- The 2007-08 and 2010-11 food-price spikes.
- Lloyd's, with Anglia Ruskin University, modelled a 'food system shock' scenario in 2015: three simultaneous weather and crop events that quadruple grain prices.
| Source | Statement | Kind |
|---|
| Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam (2011) ↗ | Food prices exceeding a threshold preceded the unrest of 2011 in North Africa and the Middle East (correlation, with other drivers present) | OBSERVED |
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Expert estimates are personal judgements, not measurements, and experts disagree. This site never adds its own probabilities.
Caveat
The link between food prices and conflict is real but contested; many other factors matter.
- Keep a few weeks of shelf-stable food you normally eat; a pantry also buffers price shocks.
Open the preparedness checklist for this scenario →
- Lagi, M., Bertrand, K.Z. & Bar-Yam, Y. (2011). The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East. arXiv:1108.2455. link ↗
- Lloyd's (2015). Food System Shock: the insurance impacts of acute disruption to global food supply. Emerging Risk Report, with Anglia Ruskin University (executive summary). link ↗
- Mach, K.J. et al. (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature 571:193-197. link ↗