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Biodiversity and pollinator decline

The 2019 IPBES assessment estimated that around a million species are threatened with extinction. For food, the most direct link is pollination: a large share of crops benefits from animal pollinators. The risk is gradual loss of yield and resilience rather than a single event.

The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.

How it could unfold

1. 1Habitat loss, climate change, pollution, invasive species● strong evidence
2. 2Declines in pollinators and other ecosystem services◐ moderate evidence
3. 3Lower or more volatile yields for some crops; weaker resilience to shocks◐ moderate evidence

Historical anchors

• Local pollinator losses and the regional collapse of some fisheries.

What experts and models say

Expert estimates are personal judgements, not measurements, and experts disagree. This site never adds its own probabilities.

What you can do

• Plant pollinator-friendly flowers; reduce pesticide use at home.

Open the preparedness checklist →

Related scenarios

• Mega-drought and breadbasket failure

References

1. IPBES (2019). Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. link ↗
2. Klein, A.-M. et al. (2007). Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops. Proc. R. Soc. B 274:303-313. link ↗