A · DocumentedHealth

Antibiotic resistance

Bacteria evolve resistance to the drugs that kill them, and overuse speeds it up. This is not a sudden event but a slow loss of an invention modern medicine relies on: surgery, cancer chemotherapy and caring for premature babies all depend on antibiotics that work.

The tier rates the quality of the evidence, not how likely the event is.

How it could unfold

1Overuse and misuse of antibiotics in humans and animals● strong evidence
2Resistant strains spread between people, animals and the environment● strong evidence
3Routine infections become harder and costlier to treat● strong evidence

Historical anchors

Already happening: tuberculosis and other infections with drug-resistant forms.

What experts and models say

Source	Statement	Kind
Murray et al. (2022) ↗	In 2019, an estimated 4.95 million deaths were associated with bacterial resistance, of which 1.27 million were directly attributable to it	OBSERVED

Expert estimates are personal judgements, not measurements, and experts disagree. This site never adds its own probabilities.

What you can do

Use antibiotics only when prescribed and finish the course as directed; vaccines also reduce the need.

Open the preparedness checklist for this scenario →

Related scenarios

Pandemic X (natural)

References

Murray, C.J.L. et al. (2022). Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019. The Lancet 399:629-655. link ↗